ToneLoc wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:53 am
h69 wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:47 am
I have always been of the opinion that the people that make their money (ie not inherit it) are rich because they generally dont short themselves on deals. The richest people can be the hardest to do a deal with so I doubt very much that they would take a hit on the price just because there is a bit of unrest. There are other investors that they have a duty to to get the best price for the club if they sell also.
I am sure they will sell but someone needs to be serious. My understanding is that no one has actually made a formal bid. They have only discussed a possible deal informally
True but as Whisky says, it’s not just about the buyer meeting the asking price, it works two ways.... it’s also up to the seller to demonstrate and justify the asking price.
Look around the PL and the major leagues of Europe. Do you see many big takeover deals actually taking place?
There’s a solid reason for that..... the sheer uncertainty.
Post COVID-19 the old rules have been thrown out of the window.
I’m sure deals will still be done but I just cannot see how any seller can ably demonstrate and justify as high an asking price post COVID-19 amidst such uncertainty.
You're right Tone. Business HATES uncertainty. Nobody knows how future TV deals are going to impact football finances and of course nobody knows when full attendances will again be a feature of the game. Add in sponsorship deals, which are dependant on TV exposure, and commercial revenue streams, a significant element of which I imagine is match day spend driven, and you have a very uncertain future.
Add to that mix that, whilst we have the advantage of being based in the capital, we are lagging way behind the big 3 competing in the same city. Particularly in respect of overseas income generation. So with C & B specs off I don't see West Ham as a particularly attractive business opportunity. Certainly there is potential, as there probably is for every club in the land, but to compete at the highest level the infrastructure has to be in place, and can we honestly say ours is ? And with 3 of the so called big 6 in the capital is there really massive potential for a fourth to try and gatecrash the party ?
I haven't a clue how much money would need to be thrown at the "project" to make West Ham competitive in order to raise the bar to enable revenue streams from European participation to feature as future earnings, but it certainly wouldn't be cheap. And that's before we start looking at the expense involved in bringing the infrastructure up to the standards befitting a major player.
Using back of a beermat calculations let's assume the club is sold for a conservative £400 million. I would imagine team rebuilding would be the first item on the agenda. After all no point in having top class training facilities to tray and attract top players if you're swanning around mid table at best. So how much for that ? £200 million ? More or less ? Buggered if I know but a lot, certainly. And then how long would any new owner be prepared to tie up that amount of capital before seeing a return on their investment ?
So imo there are a lot of imponderables. Particularly given the very uncertain future of the financial landscape, and not just the footballing one. We are, by common consent heading for the biggest recession since the 1980s, maybe even since the 1929 crash, because of Covid-19. And that's before we factor in the potential fiasco and damage to business confidence if the government is unable to thrash out a post Brexit trade deal. So will people consider spending on TV packages , season tickets or overpriced club merchandise to represent good value for money if their family incomes start to shrink in real terms or even, in some cases, disappear due to job losses.
Interesting times lie ahead imo.