The Mogg is circling...

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Neville Bartos
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by Neville Bartos » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:30 pm

So much for those cynical people suggesting May was just running the clock down without altering her already rejected deal one iota.
As if anyone would play politics with the nation's future.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by palerider » Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm

Neville Bartos wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:30 pm
So much for those cynical people suggesting May was just running the clock down without altering her already rejected deal one iota.
As if anyone would play politics with the nation's future.
I honestly don't know what happens in the immediate future after Thursday.

She'll be trounced tonight, a no-deal Brexit will be trounced tomorrow and it looks likely an extension will be asked for from the EU on Thursday. But I don't know if the EU will actually grant that.

From what I understand they'll only grant an extension if they see some light at the end of the tunnel. And even if they do it's likely to be until May 24th at the latest. Then what ?

Several more trips to Strasbourg and if nothing more gained do we leave by default ?
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by Neville Bartos » Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:40 pm

palerider wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm
Neville Bartos wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:30 pm
So much for those cynical people suggesting May was just running the clock down without altering her already rejected deal one iota.
As if anyone would play politics with the nation's future.
I honestly don't know what happens in the immediate future after Thursday.

She'll be trounced tonight, a no-deal Brexit will be trounced tomorrow and it looks likely an extension will be asked for from the EU on Thursday. But I don't know if the EU will actually grant that.

From what I understand they'll only grant an extension if they see some light at the end of the tunnel. And even if they do it's likely to be until May 24th at the latest. Then what ?

Several more trips to Strasbourg and if nothing more gained do we leave by default ?
Understandably the EU would like us off the books by the time the EU elections arrive the day after the date you mentioned.
The chances of a renogiatiated deal by that date are precisely zero.
It's all a depressingly predictable shambles.
Shame on everyone involved.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by palerider » Tue Mar 12, 2019 6:18 pm

Neville Bartos wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 5:40 pm
palerider wrote:
Tue Mar 12, 2019 4:46 pm


I honestly don't know what happens in the immediate future after Thursday.

She'll be trounced tonight, a no-deal Brexit will be trounced tomorrow and it looks likely an extension will be asked for from the EU on Thursday. But I don't know if the EU will actually grant that.

From what I understand they'll only grant an extension if they see some light at the end of the tunnel. And even if they do it's likely to be until May 24th at the latest. Then what ?

Several more trips to Strasbourg and if nothing more gained do we leave by default ?
Understandably the EU would like us off the books by the time the EU elections arrive the day after the date you mentioned.
The chances of a renogiatiated deal by that date are precisely zero.
It's all a depressingly predictable shambles.
Shame on everyone involved.
Correct.

I've looked at one of those flow chart thingies and I'm assuming that the scenario will be that on Thursday, the house will vote for an extension, which will be a request to the 27 other members of the EU. To agree it has to be unanimous.

As you say, EU elections start at the end of May. A general election or a second referendum couldn't be held in time. And in any case the Tories wouldn't dare risk it. Although I think she should throw in the towel, May will soldier on.

As I understand it, we legally leave on March 29th. A delay until May is possible but the decision to leave is set in stone no matter what Dominic Grieve, Yvette Cooper or Anna Soubry say about it.

So, even if no EU country like Spain, pissed off about Gibraltar, raises any objection, any sort of deal would have to be agreed by May 24th.

Mathematically we can still qualify for the Champions League. The chances are about equal.

If I'm wrong about any of the above would the more politically minded amongst us please tell me as it looks to me as if we're crashing out with no deal.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by BillyDWhizz » Tue Mar 12, 2019 9:14 pm

If only they had got Noel Edmonds in from the get go. This shit woulda been sorted in 50 minutes.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by Newmarket » Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:19 am

Can somebody please explain to me in plain English ( yes Trotsky :lol: ) exactly what this fucking Backstop is that they keep banging on about ? And why is it so important ?
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by Neville Bartos » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:41 am

Newmarket wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:19 am
Can somebody please explain to me in plain English ( yes Trotsky :lol: ) exactly what this fucking Backstop is that they keep banging on about ? And why is it so important ?
It keeps the UK indefinitely tied to the customs union until the border situation between Northern Ireland and the Republic is resolved.
It's important because binning it violates the Good Friday agreement.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by Pennywise » Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 am

Neville Bartos wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:41 am
Newmarket wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 8:19 am
Can somebody please explain to me in plain English ( yes Trotsky :lol: ) exactly what this fucking Backstop is that they keep banging on about ? And why is it so important ?
It keeps the UK indefinitely tied to the customs union until the border situation between Northern Ireland and the Republic is resolved.
It's important because binning it violates the Good Friday agreement.
Well, it doesn't does it? It only violates the Good Friday agreement if the EU puts in place a hard border, the UK has already committed that it won't, the EU won't without getting a backdoor agreement that could tie the entire UK to the customs union indefinitely.

Anybody thinking the EU has negotiated this in good faith is a fool.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by BlackDiamond » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:24 am

Pennywise wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:45 am
Neville Bartos wrote:
Wed Mar 13, 2019 9:41 am


It keeps the UK indefinitely tied to the customs union until the border situation between Northern Ireland and the Republic is resolved.
It's important because binning it violates the Good Friday agreement.
Well, it doesn't does it? It only violates the Good Friday agreement if the EU puts in place a hard border, the UK has already committed that it won't, the EU won't without getting a backdoor agreement that could tie the entire UK to the customs union indefinitely.

Anybody thinking the EU has negotiated this in good faith is a fool.
Which leads us nicely on to an article 50 extension. The media gossip is suggesting a "short" extension, however would anybody be greatly surprised if this protection extends for the entire 2019.

A cynical person might imagine it's all scripted with the eventual outcome all ready decided, ending with the whole process eventually cancelled.
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Re: The Mogg is circling...

Post by mkhammer » Wed Mar 13, 2019 11:34 am

First of all it isn't Mays fault,it's not "Her" Brexit,she can only bring back to Parliament,a deal the
EU will accept,they know full well,they are/can dictate terms,because Parliament are Remainers,
and Labour have made it clear from the off they will vote down any deal...ANY DEAL.....
Well till they get a deal that means we stay in the "Customs union",which means we have to keep
the free movement of Goods,Services,money,and "People"...within in the EU,and most of the
Regulations/Laws the EU will set out....which means basically we remain,throw in the SNP,Libs,
independents,who are of the same mind,what can you do,any negotiations are all but futile.

The Whole and only problem here is that Parliament(bulk of it want to remain),and they're the
ones dragging it out so we do so, not May.
Parliament are tying to overturn a public mandate...this can not be allowed to happen,hence
why they haven't contributed to negotiations...nothing ,diddley,up until now...with the we
need to stay in the Customs Union...to protect jobs and people crap,they don't give a flying
shit...even the decent ones have kept schtum,hoping in some way to force a General Election,
thats been their whole motive/agenda....it's fuckin disgraceful....

The Public voted the way it did....constituency wise overwhelmingly to leave on the grounds
of wanting control of our Borders,Sovereignty, Free trade,to set our own laws,prob in that
order....it was very simple..Parliament are against that and are trying to prevent it...

Parliament want a "no deal"..."Off the table" may well get thru parliament....but wont be
upstanding and is pointless.. as the law says...THE LAW SAYS...we leave on the 29th....
vote yer arses off good luck with that... :lol:

There will be an extension..but is only delaying the inevitable....we're leaving,and until
Parliament are Big enough to admit and stand up and admit they are revoking a public mandate,
that is what will happen...deals or no deals...

Then we'll let the High Courts decide....can they overturn it....interesting...
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