IT’S A NUMBERS GAME THE COST OF UNDER INVESTMENT

After one of the most important wins for many a year on Saturday and with all the other results going for us, we can now start to plan for the summer with regards to signings.

 

Obviously, a lot of things come into this: –

-Who will the Manager be?

-What size of budget will they have?

-What system will we play?

-Who will the Manager want to replace?

A lot of questions that we as fans will have no impact on but can have a view.

The lack of investment over the last couple of seasons has caught up on us like a yard of ale catches the drinker who thinks they are keeping up with the flow.

You can read all over the fans sites and social media the players fans believe should be replaced: –

Carroll, Kouyate, Reid, Byram, Cresswell, etc etc.

But realistically how many players can we replace in one window in terms of cost and sheer numbers needed.

The board should have been improving the team and squad window on window. In my opinion this has not been done and it could be argued that our squad is worse than the one we had at Upton Park in the last season.

 

Excluding youth players we currently have a squad of 22 players. I have ranked our squad in terms of the order players need to be replaced in my opinion.

1 SPACE     15m 0
2 HART GK LOAN 15m 0
3 EVRA DEF LOAN 10m 0
4 MARIO MID LOAN 25m 0
5 HERNANDES STR   30m 15m
6 COLLINS DEF   25m 0
7 CARROLL STR   15m 5m
8 HUGILL STR   10m 10m
9 REID DEF   15m 10m
10 KOUYATE MID   25m 20m
11 BYRAM DEF      
12 OBIANG MID      
13 ZABALETA DEF      
14 ADRIAN GK      
15 CRESSWELL DEF      
16 NOBLE MID      
17 FERNANDES MID      
18 MASUAKU DEF      
19 ANTONIO MID      
20 OGBONNA DEF      
21 RICE DEF      
22 LANZINI MID      
23 ARNAUTOVIC MID      

 

We have 1 gap that would need to be filled, followed by the three loan players of Hart, Evra and Mario.

In my view the cost of replacing these 4 would be 65m

15m for the empty space,

15m to replace Hart although it could be argued that a No1 will cost more.

10m to replace Evra with a squad player.

25m to sign or replace Mario with a player of the same level.

As there would be no money coming in for these outgoing players then this equate to 65m alone.

How many believe this could be our entire summer budget?

 

The next group of players are the ones I believe need to be replaced.

The first being Hernandes, this would not be my choice but if Moyes stays then there is no point him staying. If he does go then we would need to replace him with a very good striker that would probably cost 30m but I can’t see us recouping more than 15m for Hernandes.

We cannot go into next season with all our strikers hopes based on Arnautovic, a player that was brought in as a midfielder. If a new Manager comes in and can persuade Hernandes that he has a future, then it could save this 15m replacement cost.

 

Collins
Although it would be nice to keep him and that was my view until recently , his latest injuries at his age need to be taken into account. If he is replaced, then we must bring in a top centre half to play alongside Ogbonna. Our defence has been a major let down this season so we must bring in someone better than what we have. With no fee for Collins this would be another net cost, 25m for a good centre back.

 

Carroll
Simple, can’t be replied on. Net cost to replace, 10m with an average premier league striker

 

Hugill
Replace, hopefully with no net cost. With a good young prospect or loan

 

Reid
Again injuries and I believe we have had the best of him. As I have already accounted for a good centre back replacing Collins then net cost to replace 5m

 

Kouyate
Although having a good game against Southampton, can we upgrade for a net 5m?

 

A total of 10 players coming in equating to £185m, 9 players outgoing for 60m and Net spend 125m

Will our board spend £125m?

If not, then we will fall even further behind and could struggle again next season. I have only brought in 1 player for 30m, not exactly being extravagant or picking players from the highest branches.

Some would disagree with my order but probably not with the amount of changes needed to a squad that has been extremely disappointing for 2 seasons now.

We may bring some additional money in from Oxford and Snodgrass but we still need to be budgeting for a net 100m at a minimum.

 

Now just to finish, the squad I wouldn’t mind seeing us start next season.

1 BUTLAND (STOKE) GK
2 ADRIAN GK
3 FREDERICKS (FULHAM) DEF
4 BYRAM DEF
5 ZABALETA DEF
6 MAWSON (SWANSEA) DEF
7 TOMKINS (PALACE) DEF
8 OGBONNA DEF
9 CRESSWELL DEF
10 MASUAKU DEF/MID
11 RICE DEF/MID
12 DENDONCKER (ANDERLECHT) MID
13 OBIANG MID
14 NOBLE MID
15 FERNANDES MID
16 MADDISON (NORWICH) MID
17 MARIO (SIGN) MID
18 ANTONIO MID
19 LANZINI MID
20 ARNAUTOVIC MID/STR
21 SULIVAN SPECIAL / LOAN STR
22 SMOLOV (KRASNODAR) STR
23 DEMBELE (CELTIC) STR

 

By DazP@Kirtonhammer

 

 

 

 

 

One thought on “IT’S A NUMBERS GAME THE COST OF UNDER INVESTMENT”

  1. I admire your optimism however I won’t be happy until the end of the season and I know for sure that we are safe..

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